What is WAR?
Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is an attempt by the sabermetric baseball community to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team in one statistic. You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is all-inclusive and provides a useful reference point for comparing players. WAR offers an estimate to answer the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” This value is expressed in a wins format, so we could say that Player X is worth +6.3 wins to their team while Player Y is only worth +3.5 wins, which means it is highly likely that Player X has been more valuable than Player Y.
WAR is not meant to be a perfectly precise indicator of a player’s contribution, but rather an estimate of their value to date. Given the imperfections of some of the available data and the assumptions made to calculate other components, WAR works best as an approximation. A 6 WAR player might be worth between 5.0 and 7.0 WAR, but it is pretty safe to say they are at least an All-Star level player and potentially an MVP.
While WAR is not as complicated as some might think, it does require a good bit of information to calculate and understand. Below you can find general information about WAR and links to specific information about position players and pitchers, as WAR is obviously calculated differently for each.
Calculation:
Calculating WAR, especially for position players, is simpler than you’d think. If you want the detailed version with the precise steps and formulas, head to our page on Position Player WAR or Pitcher WAR. The short answer, though, is as follows:
● Position players – To calculate WAR for position players you want to take their Batting Runs, Base Running Runs, and Fielding Runs above average and then add in a positional adjustment, a small adjustment for their league, and then add in replacement runs so that we are comparing their performance to replacement level rather than the average player. After that, you simply take that sum and divide it by the runs per win value of that season to find WAR. The simple equation looks something like this:
WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs +Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)
● Pitchers – While position player WAR is based on Batting Runs and Fielding Runs, pitching WAR uses FIP (with infield fly balls), adjusted for park, and scaled to how many innings the pitcher threw. FIP is translated into runs, converted to represent value above replacement level, and is then converted from runs to wins. This is a slightly more complicated process than for position players, so you should click over to the pitcher WAR page if you want the details.
WAR is available in two places: FanGraphs (fWAR) and Baseball-Reference (rWAR or bWAR). Both statistics use the same framework and calculate replacement level the same, but use different methods for estimating offensive, defensive, and pitching value, so their results differ in some cases. Additionally, Baseball-Prospectus calculates WARP, which is the same idea by a different name. All of the information provided on these pages refers to fWAR, unless otherwise specified.
Why WAR:
WAR is trying to answer the time-honored question: How valuable is each player to his team? Baseball is the sum of many different parts and players can help their teams win through hitting, base running, defensive play, or pitching. Comparing two players offensively is useful, but it discounts the potential contribution a player can make by saving runs on defense. WAR is a simple attempt to combine a player’s total contribution into a single value.
The goal of WAR is to provide a holistic metric of player value that allows for comparisons across team, league, year, and era and a framework for player evaluation. While there will likely be improvements to the process by which we calculate the inputs of WAR, the basic idea is something fans and analysts have desired for decades. WAR estimates a player’s total value and allows us to make comparisons among players with vastly different skill sets. Who is better, a slugging first baseman or a superlative defensive shortstop? WAR gives you a method for answering that question.
How to Use WAR:
Perhaps one of the most controversial aspects of sabermetrics is the way in which WAR is used. Given the nature of the calculation and potential measurement errors, WAR should be used as a guide for separating groups of players and not as a precise estimate. For example, a player that has been worth 6.4 WAR and a player that has been worth 6.1 WAR over the course of a season cannot be distinguished from one another using WAR. It is simply too close for this particular tool to tell them apart. WAR can tell you that these two players are likely about equal in value, but you need to dig deeper to separate them.
However, a 6.4 WAR player and a 4.1 WAR player are different enough that you can have a high level of confidence that the first player has been more valuable to their team over the given season.
For position players, the largest point of contention comes in measuring defense and estimating the positional adjustment. Our measures of both are more uncertain than our measures of offense, so players who get a good amount of their value through their defensive ratings likely have more uncertainty around their WAR value than players who have defensive value closer to average. This does not mean that WAR is wrong or biased, but rather that it is not yet capable of perfect accuracy and should be used as such.
For pitchers, the biggest open question is how much credit a pitcher should receive for the result of a ball in play. At FanGraphs, we use FIP which assumes average results on batted balls. We know that there is some skill involved in suppressing hits on balls in play, but we have no idea exactly how much. Therefore, WAR will sell short players with certain FIP-beating skills and oversell those pitchers whose results fall short of their FIP for reasons within their control. At this point, we don’t have a good way of assigning credit more accurately for balls in play.
However, we also house RA9-WAR, which is WAR based on runs allowed instead of FIP. This allows you to use one to inform the other however you like.
Using WAR properly is difficult because it requires you to think more abstractly than some other aspects of life. The exact number is not as important as the basic range, but this isn’t just true of WAR. This is the case with all statistics in all parts of the game.
Context:
League-average WAR rates vary. An average full-time position player is worth about 2 WAR, while average bench players contribute much less (typically between 0 and 1 WAR). Average starting pitchers also are worth around 2 WAR, while relief pitchers are considered superb if they crack +1 WAR.
For position players and starting pitchers, here is a good rule-of-thumb chart:
| Scrub | 0-1 WAR |
| Role Player | 1-2 WAR |
| Solid Starter | 2-3 WAR |
| Good Player | 3-4 WAR |
| All-Star | 4-5 WAR |
| Superstar | 5-6 WAR |
| MVP | 6+ WAR |
Also, here’s a fun breakdown of all the players in baseball in 2010, courtesy of Justin Bopp from Beyond the Boxscore.
Things to Remember:
● Because there is no UZR data for catchers, the fielding component for catcher fWAR is calculated using two parts: the Stolen Base Runs Saved (rSB) metric from the Fielding Bible, and Runs saved from Passed Pitches (RPP). This accounts for a large portion of a catcher’s value, although pitch framing is not yet included in WAR. For this reason, catcher WAR is probably the least precise of all of the positions.
● WAR is context, league, and park neutral. This means you can use WAR to compare players between years, leagues, and teams.
● It is possible to have a negative WAR. In fact, the worst fWAR any player has had since 2002 is Neifi Perez from the Royals, who posted an incredible -3.1 wins in 2002.
● WAR is an estimate. You should not use WAR with the expectation that it is precise to the decimal point.
● FanGraphs’ WAR for pitchers is based on FIP (plus infield fly balls). We also have a version called RA9-WAR which is based on runs allowed. Baseball-Reference uses runs allowed and attempts to correct for the team defense.
● WAR for relievers includes a leverage component.
● There are currently 1,000 WAR per season based on a replacement level of a .294 winning percentage. Of those 1,000, 570 WAR are allocated to position players and 430 WAR are allocated to pitchers. You can learn more about the split here.
Links for Further Reading:
WAR for Position Players – FanGraphs
Intro to WAR – Big League Stew
Background on WAR – Offense (Note that these are slightly outdated. They have great info, but some calculations have changed.)
- Part 1 – Batting
- Part 2 – Fielding
- Part 3 – Positional
- Part 4 – Replacement
- Part 5 – Converting Runs to Wins
- Part 6 – Dollars
- Part 7 – Additional Info.
- Part 8 – Team Context
Background on WAR – Pitching (Note that these are slightly outdated. They have great info, but some calculations have changed.)
- Part 1 – Introduction
- Part 2 – FIP
- Part 3 – Replacement
- Part 4 – Run Environments
- Part 5 – Converting Runs to Wins
- Part 6 – Park Adjustments
- Part 7 – Calculations
Common Misconceptions – The Book Blog
Piper was the editor-in-chief of DRaysBay and the keeper of the FanGraphs Library.
What bull !
This is just another attempt by stat geeks to take away the one thing that matters more than anything and try to make someone seem better than they are , or some others appear lesser .
When you play the game for money , winning is the only thing that matters .
If that’s not a direct quote of Leo Durocher in “Nice Guys Finish Last” , it’s close .
The problem with stat freaks is that they can make the numbers say what they want them to say .
I see people on TV who supposedly know something saying Mariano Rivera is the greatest pitcher of all time .
Really ?
What an insult to pitchers of the bygone era who carried their teams like Sandy Koufax and Bob Feller by pitching 9 innings and making 40 starts plus some relief !
And they’re just the tip of the iceberg .
I read that Jack Morris probably won’t make the Hall of Fame because his WAR isn’t high enough .
How many of the pitchers who have a higher WAR were the aces on three World Series winning teams ?
Since when has the result on the field stopped mattering ?
It’s a made up stat that shouldn’t have anything to do with anything .
The numbers often DO lie .
It’s as simple as that .
John Ogrin
The rules for determining when a pitcher is credited with a “win” is a “made up stat,” so perhaps winning shouldn’t have anything to do with anything, by your logic. Baseball has ALWAYS been a game of stats. The issue here is that this is a stat that doesn’t fit your personal needs, which is fine. But understand that those of us who enjoy the statistical analysis of baseball are trying to gain a greater understanding of “the result on the field.”
It’s not like these stats are being taken from a video game. They are descriptive of what is really happening out there. If you build a team with high WAR players, guess what, you’re going to win!
It is a pretty sketchy “stat”. You are going to tell me that, for example, based on WAR a scrub would have won 13-14 games for the Reds last year? Johnny Cueto went 19-9 with a WAR of 5.8…. based on that some guy could come out of the bullpen or AAA and won 14 games for the Reds last year…. load of garbage.
Why would you reply to something a year and a half later?
Well, I replied to this 7 years later. I can’t believe how much baseball has changed in the last 9 years. WAR is commonly accepted as one of the best stats to measure the value of players, but 9 years ago idiots like John Ogrin were still like “U neEd WinS 2 W1n cY y0uNG aWarD”
Then show us, empirically, how the numbers are wrong. You don’t have to make up a stat, but to disprove empiricism, you need to show your work.
You can’t argue with Jon Heyman masquerading as John Ogrin.
You know really all statistics are made up.
I could go through every part of your comment but the others said it very well and I just don’t think it really deserves anything more than what I offered above.
Statistics are all made up, this is true. However, outside of the baseball universe the most important thing in statistics is an understanding that stats are only estimates of true parameters. What makes statistics useful is knowledge of just how reliable or unreliable a particular variable is at describing reality. This means you must quantify uncertainty. I haven’t seen any information about calculating uncertainty for WAR or most of the other sabremetrics for that matter. Without uncertainty data any stat is pretty much useless.
According to stats.com, nearly 92% of people who claim that all stats are made up scored on average a 63% or less in math related courses during high school and college.
LOL wat? this makes absolutely no sense
very good I think, But I really wanted a stat that puts defense contribution into batting statistics
Just stumbled upon this by way of another article, which explained that wraa has it’s roots in this… so cool!
Rating pitchers is even trickier than rating batters. Clemens has been called the greatest pitcher since ww2, but he never played for a bad team. Kaat and Blyleven played for quite a few bad teams.( Kaat more than Blulevn). They finished about 70 wins or 3 a year behiond Clemens, don’t even try to tell me that the teams they played on didn’t cost them that many win.s I used to hear that a great player means about 3 wqins a year over an average player. Seems about right to me. WAR seems better suited for batters than pitchers. Personaly, O try to take a starting pitcher’s win lost % out of his team and then compare it to his team without him Guys Like Walter Johnson, Carlton, and the 47 year old miracle, now hurt in Philly, look pretty dran good when you do that. As for hitters, what if he is replaced by a majot league regular ubnstead of a minor leaguer? Kind of blows WAR, in that insrance. But, as you say, use mpre than 1 method of evaluation.
If you add up the WAR for all the players on a team, does it add up to the teams number of wins? If not, is that possible?
It does, to a degree. Add up all the WAR for a team and then add an adjustment of around 43.5 WAR and that should do it.
Steve,
I just looked up Jim Rice on Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference, and the differences are significant: 41.5 rWAR compared to 56.1 fWAR. There are slight differences, even seasonally, in every column, from fielding (expected) to positional, replacement, and batting (unexpected to me). Can you explain or provide a link to the differences in how the calculations are made?
Thanks,
Ben
I’ve included lots of links in the article above — I recommend checking them out, as they’re my main resources and should answer all your questions.
In particular, I recommend checking out the multi-part WAR series provided in the ‘Links” section, as well as this piece by Sean Smith (linked to in the rWAR/fWAR section): http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/6063
That should do the trick – best of luck!
WAR doesn’t seem to be an accurate assessment of a player because it is comparative to their backup. So if a player’s minor league backup is very good statistically, it will bring his WAR down. But another player of the same position on a different team has a backup who is awful statistically so his WAR goes up, and now he seems like the better ML player, even though he probably isn’t.
@vj, that’s not true. Replacement level is a universal level for each league. I’m pretty sure fWAR has a universal replacement level for both leagues. It doesn’t matter who is on a player’s team when calculating WAR.
I hate to say it, but Baseball Reference does a much better job of calculating WAR.
This will be a fantastic blog, could you be involved in doing an interview about just how you created it? If so e-mail me!
Does WAR (among batters) in any way take into account the number of plate appearances a player gets?
From what I understand, it doesn’t, so someone who bats leadoff is automatically much more valuable than an identical player who bats 9th. Am I missing something?
Yes, replacement is on a per PA basis.
I’m sure this is a simple answer, and I think you may have answered this. But this is prorated for a whole season. So currently McCutchen is a 4.6 WAR, and if he plays at this level all year he’ll stay at 4.6, and have a 4.6 WAR at the end of the year. This is why you add yearly WARs to get a career WAR.
I might’ve answered my own question, but want to make sure. Thanks
I didn’t ask a question.. If I compare 2 players at 4.6 and 2.0, the 4.6 is worth 2 more wins for the whole year?
Thanks
It’s not a rating, so it’s not saying McCutchen is playing at a 4.6 WAR level. It’s cumulative, so if he keeps playing at a high level he will accumulate more Wins above replacement. Conversely, if he begins to play poorly, he can see those wins decrease. Let’s say he ends the year at 6.0 wins and you compare him to someone at 2.0 wins (as you said in your comment), McCutchen would be worth 4.0 additional Wins Above Replacement over the player with 2 wins. Next season everyone starts back at 0.
Now that there is a new version of Sierra on this site, is it quite possible that WAR for pitchers is going to be adjusted to be based on that instead of FIP?
Seriously? I think that the people who come up with these statistics and those who put faith in them only have an understanding of baseball afforded them by their Playstations.
The problem with WAR is that it is based on some arbitrary numbers. The positional adjustment is completely arbitrary – who determined the a CF is worth exactly 1.5 wins more than a first baseman. This is an arbitrary adjustment (obviously, since the positional adjustments just happen to be in increments of exactly 0.5 wins … weird). Also, the final number is determined by adding up statistics of different units. Who determined what significance wRAA and UZR have in relation to each other? Who determined that they can just be added together – molding different units into one single stat? Not only have defensive statistics, including UZR, been shown to be faulty in and of themselves (defensive metrics seem to differ depending on who is calculating them), but the hubris to think one can extrapolate the UZR to determine “wins” and just arbitrarily add it to a completely different statistic (wRAA) to determine a final definitive number is a model that would make any good economist’s head spin.
As an example, Brett Gardner plays left field, and Curtis Granderson plays center – if they switched positions, which they could (both have played both positions) – suddenly, their value as players changes. Just by moving to center field, Brett Gardner is worth one more win as a player. It is one thing to suggest (arbitrarily) that the Yankees would be one win better if Gardner played center and Granderson played left – However, Brett Gardner didn’t change – he is still Brett Gardner. Therefore – using the stat to determine BRETT GARDNER’S ABILITY is flawed. To take it to the next extreme – if Brett Gardner played center field this season, his WAR would be about 5.8 – and if Granderson played left field, his WAR would be about 4.3!!! Suggesting that just by switching positions, Brett Gardner would be more than a win more valuable to the Yankees than Curtis Granderson!!!
positional adjustments are not arbitrary actually. You should go out and research it a bit.
This is sports we’re talking about here, right?
Is there any verification method for WAR? For example, is there any way of estimating the uncertainty involved with the statistic? If not, it seems somewhat hand-wavy. I see the logic in its development, but it’s impossible to know how reliable the numbers are without some verification method. What has been done, or what is the rationale for believing in WAR?
First of all, thank you very much for this wealth of information! Fantastic site & article!
However, I had a quick question for anybody out there…
How is it that if we add up all of the players WAR on a team, that number doesn’t reflect the total number of wins over the baseline of 48?
For instance, the St. Louis Cardinals players added up to 28.1 WAR. However, the team finished with 86 wins, which is 38 wins over that base level for a replacement team. If WAR is an accepted method to determine an individual players’ worth, shouldn’t the entire teams’ WAR reflect record?
“If WAR is an accepted method to determine an individual players’ worth, shouldn’t the entire teams’ WAR reflect record?”
WAR is based on runs created/prevented, and sometimes teams win more or less than their runs scored/given up would suggest. That difference between a team’s runs scored/allowed and their record can’t be attributed to a specific player. There’s no intent or skill there – it’s just something that happens.
So there’s no actual “worth” in it. It’s not something that I would pay extra for (or less for), if I were a GM, because I have no way of knowing if that over- or underperformance is something that an individual player “takes with him”, like his hitting skill or his baserunning or his defense.
I do wonder if there’s something else throwing off the calculation, though. A 10-win variation is a little suspect. I’d be interested in knowing what else would cause the difference.
You forgot to add in the pitcher WAR.
Thanks Jesse, I appreciate it. Actually, I’m doing an investigation into this. If you take the runs created and compare it to wins over the baseline of 48, the MLB average for 2010 would be 7.24 runs per win over replacement.
Therefore, I would say that the ten runs per win method is at fault in this case. However, I would like to compare this with other years to test this.
And Andrew, I did take into account pitcher’s WAR.
Dear Fangraphs,
Please join the 21st century and use SIERA for WAR calculations.
Thank you.
Can anyone tell me why WAR for pitchers and position players aren’t two separate stats? I’m always running into people using WAR to compare pitchers to position players and to me it doesn’t make much sense. Pitching WAR is derived using a different methodology than that employed for Offensive WAR. Just because you named them each the same thing doesn’t mean they equate…
Pitchers’ wins and losses shouldn’t even be a part statistical analysis. Consider this: One pitcher “scatters” seven hits but gives up no runs. The opposing pitcher throws a no-hitter and loses (yes, he can – a walk, a sac bunt, a stolen base, a sac fly); who pitched the better game ? What did the “winning” pitcher do to get the win? With the exception of strikeouts and walks; everything a pitcher accomplishes is solely the result of his defense. In nearly every no-hitter I’ve ever seen, there has been at least one incredible defensive play keeping the no-no intact. One more thing: When looking at a pitcher’s record, does anyone ever look at who he faced in each of his outings? If a pitcher is frequently up against the other team’s ace, he will probably not do as well as when he is frequently up against the other team’s number four or five guy. Is this ever accounted for in the stats?
What you just described is basically the FIP and xFIP stats.
2011 Tyler Clippard 88.1 IP 18 Runs 1.2 WAR
2011 Jonathan Papelbon 67.0 IP 29 Runs 1.2 WAR
Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t there a glitch here? The question asked is: “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a minor leaguer or someone from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” But why ask “if” (or at least ONLY “if”) in regard to events that have already transpired? Where does it ask “Did”? i.e. “DID the player often make a replacement player relevant?” If player A is considerably better than a replacement player, but only plays about 125 games in the average season, how is that NOT relevant. In other words, Babe Ruth on the DL is NO better than, well…me. And who cares how good or bad a replacement player is if the player being compared plays 162 games?
This is probably a really dumb question, but is there a reason that only FA dollars being spent are used to determine how much each win above replacement is worth in dollars? Why do we not use total MLB salary or 25 Man roster salary? Wouldn’t this give us a better understanding of the total value of the Win and not the value of this player simply in relation to the other FA’s available?
To: John Ogrin. I know exactly what you mean that every geek thinks their Bill James. To be honest I have never heard any human being, even at Yankee Stadium, (in all three of them) where I have been watching BB games since the 1950s say Mariano Rivers is the best pitcher ever.
As a matter I have never any say he was the best Yankee pitcher ever. Just to nit pick. Have to nit pick to get ready for pitchers and catchers. Even after the Giants huge win yesterday when the Giants got revenge for 1962. In 2008 we got revenge for 1961.
I’m still unconvinced about WAR. I may be off slightly on this number, but, for example, I read that Justin Verlander had a WAR of 8, impressive I guess. So that means he is eight wins better than a minor league or waiver wire player. Really? So your top minor league pitcher is going to win 16 games? (Verlander won 24). Hardly. Maybe I’m confused about what WAR really means, but I can’t believe that someone who won the pitching triple crown with that record is only eight games better than a replacement. Set me straight. By the way, I am not anti-saber. I’ve enjoyed reading Bill James since the early 1980s and believe much of what he writes.
If he received the same amount of defense and run support that Verlander did, he’d do quite well.
Remember than pitcher Win/Loss records are not entirely up to the pitcher but have a lot to do with the team behind them. Would he have won 16 games? Probably not, but that’s not a testament to his ability, but rather the team’s ability to help him out on defense and score runs.
The MLB “wins” statistic is not equivalent to the “wins” in WAR. I’m mangling the stats a bit, but, as an example:
Verlander’s W-L stat for 2011 is 24-5, but behind him, the team went 25-9 in 2011. So using Verlander’s WAR, a replacement’s team would have won ~ 8 fewer games, or would have gone 17-17. That sounds about right to me.
You can’t factor in the no decisions, blown saves, and come-from-behind wins that are part of the traditional MLB statistic, which is why the thought of an average SP getting 16 traditional “wins” is tough to think of, but having a decent (or above average) team win 17 games in which that average pitcher starts is not.
(PS the Cardinals went 18-15 in games in which Jake Westbrook, with a rWAR of 0, played.)
Exactly. No other pitcher on the team made it to 16 wins. And before acquiring Doug Fister; Phil Coke, Jacob Turner, Charlie Furbush, Duane Below, and Andy Oliver all saw time as the 5th starter. In 23 starts they combined for 4 wins. Turner is the teams top prospect and Coke, Furbush, and Below are all still on major league rosters, so it’s not like these aren’t legitimate replacements. I understand that wins/losses is dependent on a lot more than a pitcher’s individual performance, but it’s not entirely irrelevant.
Verlander also had 4 “tough losses” and no “cheap wins”, the Tiger’s defense was horrible, and his run support was average (59th in the league). So I don’t think you can say that his record was the result of being on a powerhouse team, a la 2010 Phil Hughes.
Still new to the advanced statistics so this was very interesting. However, I am a little confused by the constant use of WAR in the player projections for 2012. While they give a good idea of the player’s value and production, the WAR figure does not tell me what “kind” of player he is. I think I need to see the counting stats in addition to just WAR.
WAR is a joke for one major reason. The 10 runs equals 1 win stat. Too arbitrary as if a win has to be a blow out to count. Also, SABR has no stats for clutch play which decides winning and losing in that not all runs or wins are equal.
I know that you won’t read this but here’s your explanation on those two things:
Using the “pythagorean” equation, we find that runs scored and runs allowed correlate very strongly to a team’s winning percentage and we find that about a 10 run swing in either direction equates to about 1 win. So, that’s why if a players is worth 10 runs above a fictional replacement level player, the player is worth 1 WAR.
SABR does indeed have stats for clutch play.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/get-to-know-wpa/
There’s also this:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/get-to-know-clutch/
WPA correlates with a player’s WAR as a we should expect good players to hit to their talent level. Good players tend to affect the game (makes obvious sense) in a better manner for their team.
Clutch doesn’t correlate with anything. Its all over the map. There’s no consistency from year to year for players. Basically, it says that there is no such thing as clutch but there is such a thing as small sample sizes and confirmation bias.
What is it good for?
What I don’t like about WAR is that it’s still a ‘counting stat’ in that if you play more games in a season, your WAR is likely to be higher than someone who played fewer games unless that player was much better. For example… if a player plays first base for 160 games and averages .05 WAR/game (season WAR of 8), he’ll appear to have the same value as a player who played 107 games and averages .075 WAR/game. Particularly for teams that have a lot of depth and cash flow, even a backup level player is usually capable of providing a WAR above 0.
I understand that there’s obviously some value in simply playing additional games, just being a body on the field and showing up to work, but I still think WAR should be presented additionally as a “per game” stat, rather than counting stats.
Furthermore, any stat that deems Mark Teixeira a reasonably good hitter must be fundamentally flawed (jk).
This is why I can not believe in WAR…as of June 20th, 2012
Gregor Blanco .748 OPS 15 RBI 2.1 WAR
Miguel Cabrera .912 OPS 55 RBI 2.1 WAR
Tell me how any stat can be taken seriously when we are saying those two guys have had an equal season up to this point. I understand Miggy is slow and a below average fielder,but, I have the MLB package and watch Miggy on a daily basis. This team is terrible w/out him in the lineup.
If it makes any difference, Blanco is at 1.9 fWAR and Melky is at 3.1 fWAR as of right now.
This may be a stupid question, but is there any league adjustment for WAR? I just noticed that the top 4 hitters in the NL at this point have a higher WAR than the top batter by WAR in the AL.
This WAR thing is just one more reason to put all the saberchucklheadds in a room and nuke them. A real talent evaluator can tell how good a player is by watching him play. We don’t need no stinkin sabermetrics.
Let’s face it, unfortunately baseball isn’t a “for love of the game” game anymore. Baseball is a business and you have to manufacture a product that fans want to pay money to come see play. The reason fans come out to support there team is simple, because they win. Owners pay statisticians to analyze players contributions in an attempt to create a more accurate formula with an outcome that translates into victories. Ideally the end result of these stats and formulas at the end of the day lead to victories and victories lead to attendance, attendance leads to money. In 2011, there were 15 out of 19 teams with the lowest overall attendance last year and those teams also had .500 or less winning percentage.
“There is an epidemic failure within the game to understand what is really happening. And this leads people who run Major League Baseball teams to misjudge their players and mismanage their teams… People who run ball clubs, they think in terms of buying players. Your goal shouldn’t be to buy players, your goal should be to buy wins. And in order to buy wins, you need to buy runs… Baseball thinking is medieval. They are asking all the wrong questions.” Peter Brand – MoneyBall
And to John Ogrin’s comment towards the top “When you play the game for money , winning is the only thing that matters.” Well John, when you play anything whether it be for money or for fun, guess what, winning is the only thing that matters or why else would you be playing and why else would you keep score. Baseball is a game of stats and percentages and if we can create formulas from this information to provide us with the best possible outcome for a victory my question is, what’s wrong with that?
Professional baseball has always been a money making enterprise. The owners banked on the players primarily playing for the love of the game from the beginning until the reserve clause was found to be hollow. Statistics are just another means that people use to understand a complex world through simplification. In baseball, they will never be able to completely gauge a players worth. WAR is therefore useful but flawed.
Reading the previous posts, I was disappointed that some folks still think a pitcher’s win-loss record is important, even in the DH era. Pitching is defense. It is impossible for a pitcher to win a game in the American League–he can only “not lose” it. In the NL, since a pitcher has the opportunity to contribute to scoring runs as well as preventing them, a pitcher could be said to have “won” a game.
Did you know that the NY Yankees are undefeated on every 3rd Tuesday, of odd months, during the fall, on even years divisible by 4, on games that start between the hours of 4 and 7, when there are no clouds in the sky, with a left hander starting, pitching to no more then 5 right handed batters.
That is crazy, stats dont lie!
Sorry just read WAR stat. I have to say I don’t like WAR. Stats don’t lie but can be manipulated, but that’s not why I don’t like war. I even look at WAR when recruting players. I have 3 sons who all played baseball. 2 were wanted by everyone every year, even going into college. My other son nobody wanted. He just ran to right field every game did what he had to do and ran back. One of his fallball coaches said one time come on get aggressive swing the bat. He didnt swing he walked. Only player to get on base. He walked 3 times that day and hit once. Coached benched him, this coach runs little league no stranger to baseball. My other boys were all over the field hitting, pitching and defense out the yang. Another coach came to me and asked about my star son about going to his college. I said star he doesn’t have the numbers for your team, joke right. Nope he said your son just knows the game he is always on base, when he does strike out it is from a ball in the strike zone. Then he said look at what he does when game is close and its last inng, Look what he does then. He showed me that my so-so son always produced,I mean always. home run’s or triple’s and double’s. Well that’s why he is DIV 1 coach for so long and I am not. Lol so it works for some but not all. Well on base stat % he looks good. I could but him in the GOL ( game on line )stat. Then he looks good. His WAR ain’t taking him anywhere. Hope my point makes since. I got out of surgery about 6 hours ago and hospitel room already driving me crazy. Thank you for your time.
Evan Longoria is the king of WAR in 2012 isnt he? As in actual WIns Above Replacement player. ACTUAL WINS. The Rays were 42-26 with Longoria and 43-45 without as of yesterday. How about we just use that as WAR? but then again, there should be some credit given to someone who doesn’t miss 88 games a year due to injury so nevermind. Wait, now I’m confused. Oh well. Miguel Cabrera for MVP! (even though there’s probably stats that say it would be better to have a healthy Brandon Inge back on the team and playing 3rd and Cabrera not in the lineup).
” … as far as the propositions of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.”
Albert Einstein, 1921
So, lighten-up, leave the math at home, and just enjoy a very simple game on a warm summer day…..the sounds, smells, and serendipity of the stadium, sun on your brow, and crack of the bat…shared simultaneously with family, friends, fellow fans, smiling children, and the players on the field….all in pursuit of….FUN….
The premise on the ‘war’ model seems flawed at best. This model does not measure a players ability, but the subjective unmeasurable outcomes of ‘what if’ scenarios. The premise of using replacement costs to measure a players impact on the team requires answers to the questions, ” who are my teammates?” and ” who are the competitors? “. If my teammates are more unskilled, my war goes up. If my competition has injuries or are unskilled then my replacement value goes up, my war goes up. How absurd! If my teammates are my equals, highly skilled talent, my replacement costs are lower, and my war is lower. Follow this on to the competitors. This metric does not measure a players ability, but rather his teammates’. To use replacement costs as a standard of value, is to reduce a player to nothing but a function of raw materials and current markets to determine his value. Deplorable.
I’d replace all mentions of ‘teammates’ with ‘leaguemates’ to be more correct. And then yes, I’d say that my value is dependent on my leaguemates’ abilities. Because if I were on the open market, I’d be an asset for sale on that open market, and my leaguemates would provide the alternatives, and therefore would help determine my cost. WAR actually tries to remove teammates from the equation in particular, because once I am on a team, I can do nothing about my teammates. That’s part of the beauty of WAR. Use RBI and you’re a slave to the teammates, because they have to be on base for you when you make contact. Use pitcher wins and you’re a slave to your teammates, because they have to score for you, and the bullpen has to keep your lead. Use WAR, and brighter minds than mine have tried to determine exactly what YOU did on your own, without your teammates.
(W)ild A($$) (R)esults
If WAR is calculated using rate statistics, how can it be an absolute (not a per PA, or per AB) measurement? It has to express the number of wins per something, does it not?
I’m just look at Giancarlo Stanton’s 5.8 WAR calculation and don’t understand how it reflects that he missed a good portion of the season.
What am I misunderestimating here?
it is the number of wins above a replacement projected over a regular 162 game season?
i don’t understand how you can calculate team WAR without a method for weighing the individual players contributions.
my brain hurts.
No, its the number of wins provided above replacement in only the games the player played in. Since its only for the games the player played in his contribution is already weighted for team WAR.
I think WAR is a great stat, but its not perfect. i am a huge Giants fan, so forgive any bias. Based on what site you look at, Posey finished w/ a 7.2 WAR, Y. Molina finished w/ 6.8, Ruiz w/ a 4.4. Mostly in the case of Posey/Yadier being so closely, Posey batted 4th and the lineup would fall apart without him, while if Molina batting 5/6th went down,he would be much more replaceable, because the Cardianls would still score well and win games. It doesn’t reflect a lineups depth, or what the value of the true replacement behind them would be. If Posey went down a rookie like Hector Sanchez would be exposed behind the plate and holes in his swing found. I truly feel he is worth about 9-10 wins for the Giants based on their teams structure.
War is not at all necessary in evaluating players. We knew who was the best before war. And who had the highest war in 2011? Ben Zobrist
Wow! I’m so impressed. Who would have thought you needed to be a rocket scientist to be a baseball fan? Football fans wouldn’t stand a chance in this company LOL
Does the WAR value posted on the pitcher leader boards include the effects of the pitcher’s batting and fielding? From the description of the calculation above, the answer appears to be no, and to get the entire WAR for a pitcher one would need to add the total from the batting records. However, I don’t want to add the WAR from the batting records for pitchers if it has already been added to the number reported on the pitcher file.
Does the WAR value posted on the batting leader boards include the effects any pitching done by a non-pitcher? I’m guessing the answer is no, but I want to be sure. I can see not penalizing a non-pitcher for serving as a pitcher and taking one for the team. On the other hand, some non-pitchers have a small positive WAR and ought to get credit for it.
Just a little observation: Denard Span had a 4.8 WAR this year. Josh Hamilton had a 3.4. Sooo I guess Span at the very least just as good as Hamilton, if not better right? Yeah, that stat totally works.
war is a joke. dwar is an even bigger joke. i can see with my eyes which players have the best defense and cover the most ground, and any stat that gives denard better value than hamilton is simply idiotic.
Remember….”90% of the game is half mental”.
something that has been nagging me about WAR – has there ever been discussions about WAR and divisional strength? mostly because when a team plays in division and that is a weak division (calculating playing against a strong division is another barrel of fish ) it seems like all your WAR numbers can get thrown off. I was thinking about it this offseason especially when it comes to free agent cleveland players that would be difficult to lean on WAR since there were so many horribly weak teams within the division.
What is the point in mentioning that “…the worst fWAR any player has had since 2002 is Neifi Perez from the Royals, who posted an incredible -3.1 wins in 2002?”
To single out a player in such a negative manner is totally inappropriate, irresponsible, and disrespectful. And emphasizing it with the word “incredible” is especially uncalled for.
The statement says much more about your failings than it does about the performance of Perez, and should be removed from the site.