What is WAR?

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is an attempt by the sabermetric baseball community to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team in one statistic. You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is all-inclusive and provides a useful reference point for comparing players. WAR offers an estimate to answer the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” This value is expressed in a wins format, so we could say that Player X is worth +6.3 wins to their team while Player Y is only worth +3.5 wins, which means it is highly likely that Player X has been more valuable than Player Y.

WAR is not meant to be a perfectly precise indicator of a player’s contribution, but rather an estimate of their value to date. Given the imperfections of some of the available data and the assumptions made to calculate other components, WAR works best as an approximation. A 6 WAR player might be worth between 5.0 and 7.0 WAR, but it is pretty safe to say they are at least an All-Star level player and potentially an MVP.

While WAR is not as complicated as some might think, it does require a good bit of information to calculate and understand. Below you can find general information about WAR and links to specific information about position players and pitchers, as WAR is obviously calculated differently for each.

● For Position Players

● For Pitchers

Calculation:

Calculating WAR, especially for position players, is simpler than you’d think. If you want the detailed version with the precise steps and formulas, head to our page on Position Player WAR or Pitcher WAR. The short answer, though, is as follows:

● Position players – To calculate WAR for position players you want to take their Batting Runs, Base Running Runs, and Fielding Runs above average and then add in a positional adjustment, a small adjustment for their league, and then add in replacement runs so that we are comparing their performance to replacement level rather than the average player. After that, you simply take that sum and divide it by the runs per win value of that season to find WAR. The simple equation looks something like this:

WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs +Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)

● Pitchers – While position player WAR is based on Batting Runs and Fielding Runs, pitching WAR uses FIP (with infield fly balls), adjusted for park, and scaled to how many innings the pitcher threw. FIP is translated into runs, converted to represent value above replacement level, and is then converted from runs to wins. This is a slightly more complicated process than for position players, so you should click over to the pitcher WAR page if you want the details.

WAR is available in two places: FanGraphs (fWAR) and Baseball-Reference (rWAR or bWAR). Both statistics use the same framework and calculate replacement level the same, but use different methods for estimating offensive, defensive, and pitching value, so their results differ in some cases. Additionally, Baseball-Prospectus calculates WARP, which is the same idea by a different name. All of the information provided on these pages refers to fWAR, unless otherwise specified.

Why WAR:

WAR is trying to answer the time-honored question: How valuable is each player to his team? Baseball is the sum of many different parts and players can help their teams win through hitting, base running, defensive play, or pitching. Comparing two players offensively is useful, but it discounts the potential contribution a player can make by saving runs on defense. WAR is a simple attempt to combine a player’s total contribution into a single value.

The goal of WAR is to provide a holistic metric of player value that allows for comparisons across team, league, year, and era and a framework for player evaluation. While there will likely be improvements to the process by which we calculate the inputs of WAR, the basic idea is something fans and analysts have desired for decades. WAR estimates a player’s total value and allows us to make comparisons among players with vastly different skill sets. Who is better, a slugging first baseman or a superlative defensive shortstop? WAR gives you a method for answering that question.

How to Use WAR:

Perhaps one of the most controversial aspects of sabermetrics is the way in which WAR is used. Given the nature of the calculation and potential measurement errors, WAR should be used as a guide for separating groups of players and not as a precise estimate. For example, a player that has been worth 6.4 WAR and a player that has been worth 6.1 WAR over the course of a season cannot be distinguished from one another using WAR. It is simply too close for this particular tool to tell them apart. WAR can tell you that these two players are likely about equal in value, but you need to dig deeper to separate them.

However, a 6.4 WAR player and a 4.1 WAR player are different enough that you can have a high level of confidence that the first player has been more valuable to their team over the given season.

For position players, the largest point of contention comes in measuring defense and estimating the positional adjustment. Our measures of both are more uncertain than our measures of offense, so players who get a good amount of their value through their defensive ratings likely have more uncertainty around their WAR value than players who have defensive value closer to average. This does not mean that WAR is wrong or biased, but rather that it is not yet capable of perfect accuracy and should be used as such.

For pitchers, the biggest open question is how much credit a pitcher should receive for the result of a ball in play. At FanGraphs, we use FIP which assumes average results on batted balls. We know that there is some skill involved in suppressing hits on balls in play, but we have no idea exactly how much. Therefore, WAR will sell short players with certain FIP-beating skills and oversell those pitchers whose results fall short of their FIP for reasons within their control. At this point, we don’t have a good way of assigning credit more accurately for balls in play.

However, we also house RA9-WAR, which is WAR based on runs allowed instead of FIP. This allows you to use one to inform the other however you like.

Using WAR properly is difficult because it requires you to think more abstractly than some other aspects of life. The exact number is not as important as the basic range, but this isn’t just true of WAR. This is the case with all statistics in all parts of the game.

Context:

League-average WAR rates vary. An average full-time position player is worth  about 2 WAR, while average bench players contribute much less (typically between 0 and 1 WAR). Average starting pitchers also are worth around 2 WAR, while relief pitchers are considered superb if they crack +1 WAR.

For position players and starting pitchers, here is a good rule-of-thumb chart:

Scrub 0-1 WAR
Role Player 1-2 WAR
Solid Starter 2-3 WAR
Good Player 3-4 WAR
All-Star 4-5 WAR
Superstar 5-6 WAR
MVP 6+ WAR

Also, here’s a fun breakdown of all the players in baseball in 2010, courtesy of Justin Bopp from Beyond the Boxscore.

Things to Remember:

● Because there is no UZR data for catchers, the fielding component for catcher fWAR is calculated using two parts: the Stolen Base Runs Saved (rSB) metric from the Fielding Bible, and Runs saved from Passed Pitches (RPP). This accounts for a large portion of a catcher’s value, although pitch framing is not yet included in WAR. For this reason, catcher WAR is probably the least precise of all of the positions.

● WAR is context, league, and park neutral. This means you can use WAR to compare players between years, leagues, and teams.

● It is possible to have a negative WAR. In fact, the worst fWAR any player has had since 2002 is Neifi Perez from the Royals, who posted an incredible -3.1 wins in 2002.

● WAR is an estimate. You should not use WAR with the expectation that it is precise to the decimal point.

● FanGraphs’ WAR for pitchers is based on FIP (plus infield fly balls). We also have a version called RA9-WAR which is based on runs allowed. Baseball-Reference uses runs allowed and attempts to correct for the team defense.

● WAR for relievers includes a leverage component.

● There are currently 1,000 WAR per season based on a replacement level of a .294 winning percentage. Of those 1,000, 570 WAR are allocated to position players and 430 WAR are allocated to pitchers. You can learn more about the split here.

Links for Further Reading:

WAR for Position Players – FanGraphs

WAR for Pitchers – FanGraphs

Intro to WAR – Big League Stew

Background on WAR – Offense (Note that these are slightly outdated. They have great info, but some calculations have changed.)

Background on WAR – Pitching (Note that these are slightly outdated. They have great info, but some calculations have changed.)

Common Misconceptions – The Book Blog

Simple WAR Calculator – Wahoo’s On First

wOBA to WAR Conversion – Beyond the Boxscore





Steve is the editor-in-chief of DRaysBay and the keeper of the FanGraphs Library. You can follow him on Twitter at @steveslow.

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John Ogrin
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John Ogrin

What bull ! This is just another attempt by stat geeks to take away the one thing that matters more than anything and try to make someone seem better than they are , or some others appear lesser . When you play the game for money , winning is the only thing that matters . If that’s not a direct quote of Leo Durocher in “Nice Guys Finish Last” , it’s close . The problem with stat freaks is that they can make the numbers say what they want them to say . I see people on TV who supposedly… Read more »

Lee Gilgour
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Lee Gilgour

The rules for determining when a pitcher is credited with a “win” is a “made up stat,” so perhaps winning shouldn’t have anything to do with anything, by your logic. Baseball has ALWAYS been a game of stats. The issue here is that this is a stat that doesn’t fit your personal needs, which is fine. But understand that those of us who enjoy the statistical analysis of baseball are trying to gain a greater understanding of “the result on the field.” It’s not like these stats are being taken from a video game. They are descriptive of what is… Read more »

Regan Russell
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Regan Russell

It is a pretty sketchy “stat”. You are going to tell me that, for example, based on WAR a scrub would have won 13-14 games for the Reds last year? Johnny Cueto went 19-9 with a WAR of 5.8…. based on that some guy could come out of the bullpen or AAA and won 14 games for the Reds last year…. load of garbage.

Joe
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Joe

Why would you reply to something a year and a half later?

Brad Mampe
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Brad Mampe

Then show us, empirically, how the numbers are wrong. You don’t have to make up a stat, but to disprove empiricism, you need to show your work.

Chuck Hildebrandt
Member
Member
Chuck Hildebrandt

You can’t argue with Jon Heyman masquerading as John Ogrin.

Techno_Viking-
Member
Techno_Viking-

You know really all statistics are made up.
I could go through every part of your comment but the others said it very well and I just don’t think it really deserves anything more than what I offered above.

Brewing In Brooklyn
Guest
Brewing In Brooklyn

Statistics are all made up, this is true. However, outside of the baseball universe the most important thing in statistics is an understanding that stats are only estimates of true parameters. What makes statistics useful is knowledge of just how reliable or unreliable a particular variable is at describing reality. This means you must quantify uncertainty. I haven’t seen any information about calculating uncertainty for WAR or most of the other sabremetrics for that matter. Without uncertainty data any stat is pretty much useless.

Lanny Lower
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Lanny Lower

According to stats.com, nearly 92% of people who claim that all stats are made up scored on average a 63% or less in math related courses during high school and college.

CFIC
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CFIC

LOL wat? this makes absolutely no sense

Andy Ruben
Guest

very good I think, But I really wanted a stat that puts defense contribution into batting statistics

shibboleth
Guest
shibboleth

Just stumbled upon this by way of another article, which explained that wraa has it’s roots in this… so cool!

Ron Rines
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Ron Rines

Rating pitchers is even trickier than rating batters. Clemens has been called the greatest pitcher since ww2, but he never played for a bad team. Kaat and Blyleven played for quite a few bad teams.( Kaat more than Blulevn). They finished about 70 wins or 3 a year behiond Clemens, don’t even try to tell me that the teams they played on didn’t cost them that many win.s I used to hear that a great player means about 3 wqins a year over an average player. Seems about right to me. WAR seems better suited for batters than pitchers. Personaly,… Read more »

Doug
Guest
Doug

If you add up the WAR for all the players on a team, does it add up to the teams number of wins? If not, is that possible?

Ben Hall
Member
Member
Ben Hall

Steve,

I just looked up Jim Rice on Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference, and the differences are significant: 41.5 rWAR compared to 56.1 fWAR. There are slight differences, even seasonally, in every column, from fielding (expected) to positional, replacement, and batting (unexpected to me). Can you explain or provide a link to the differences in how the calculations are made?

Thanks,
Ben

vj
Guest
vj

WAR doesn’t seem to be an accurate assessment of a player because it is comparative to their backup. So if a player’s minor league backup is very good statistically, it will bring his WAR down. But another player of the same position on a different team has a backup who is awful statistically so his WAR goes up, and now he seems like the better ML player, even though he probably isn’t.

noseeum
Member
noseeum

@vj, that’s not true. Replacement level is a universal level for each league. I’m pretty sure fWAR has a universal replacement level for both leagues. It doesn’t matter who is on a player’s team when calculating WAR.

Lily
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Lily

I hate to say it, but Baseball Reference does a much better job of calculating WAR.

Cristobal Dadson
Guest

This will be a fantastic blog, could you be involved in doing an interview about just how you created it? If so e-mail me!

Joe
Guest
Joe

Does WAR (among batters) in any way take into account the number of plate appearances a player gets?

From what I understand, it doesn’t, so someone who bats leadoff is automatically much more valuable than an identical player who bats 9th. Am I missing something?

barkey Walker
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barkey Walker

Yes, replacement is on a per PA basis.

Mark
Guest
Mark

I’m sure this is a simple answer, and I think you may have answered this. But this is prorated for a whole season. So currently McCutchen is a 4.6 WAR, and if he plays at this level all year he’ll stay at 4.6, and have a 4.6 WAR at the end of the year. This is why you add yearly WARs to get a career WAR.

I might’ve answered my own question, but want to make sure. Thanks

Mark
Guest
Mark

I didn’t ask a question.. If I compare 2 players at 4.6 and 2.0, the 4.6 is worth 2 more wins for the whole year?

Thanks

Santos
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Santos

It’s not a rating, so it’s not saying McCutchen is playing at a 4.6 WAR level. It’s cumulative, so if he keeps playing at a high level he will accumulate more Wins above replacement. Conversely, if he begins to play poorly, he can see those wins decrease. Let’s say he ends the year at 6.0 wins and you compare him to someone at 2.0 wins (as you said in your comment), McCutchen would be worth 4.0 additional Wins Above Replacement over the player with 2 wins. Next season everyone starts back at 0.

Griffin
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Griffin

Now that there is a new version of Sierra on this site, is it quite possible that WAR for pitchers is going to be adjusted to be based on that instead of FIP?

Terry
Guest
Terry

Seriously? I think that the people who come up with these statistics and those who put faith in them only have an understanding of baseball afforded them by their Playstations.

Butch
Guest
Butch

The problem with WAR is that it is based on some arbitrary numbers. The positional adjustment is completely arbitrary – who determined the a CF is worth exactly 1.5 wins more than a first baseman. This is an arbitrary adjustment (obviously, since the positional adjustments just happen to be in increments of exactly 0.5 wins … weird). Also, the final number is determined by adding up statistics of different units. Who determined what significance wRAA and UZR have in relation to each other? Who determined that they can just be added together – molding different units into one single stat?… Read more »

SF 55 for life
Member
SF 55 for life

positional adjustments are not arbitrary actually. You should go out and research it a bit.

Scott
Guest

This is sports we’re talking about here, right?

drewcorb
Member
drewcorb

Is there any verification method for WAR? For example, is there any way of estimating the uncertainty involved with the statistic? If not, it seems somewhat hand-wavy. I see the logic in its development, but it’s impossible to know how reliable the numbers are without some verification method. What has been done, or what is the rationale for believing in WAR?

Matthew Tennenhouse
Guest
Matthew Tennenhouse

First of all, thank you very much for this wealth of information! Fantastic site & article! However, I had a quick question for anybody out there… How is it that if we add up all of the players WAR on a team, that number doesn’t reflect the total number of wins over the baseline of 48? For instance, the St. Louis Cardinals players added up to 28.1 WAR. However, the team finished with 86 wins, which is 38 wins over that base level for a replacement team. If WAR is an accepted method to determine an individual players’ worth, shouldn’t… Read more »

Jesse
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Jesse

“If WAR is an accepted method to determine an individual players’ worth, shouldn’t the entire teams’ WAR reflect record?” WAR is based on runs created/prevented, and sometimes teams win more or less than their runs scored/given up would suggest. That difference between a team’s runs scored/allowed and their record can’t be attributed to a specific player. There’s no intent or skill there – it’s just something that happens. So there’s no actual “worth” in it. It’s not something that I would pay extra for (or less for), if I were a GM, because I have no way of knowing if… Read more »

Psyduck
Member
Member
Psyduck

You forgot to add in the pitcher WAR.

Matthew Tennenhouse
Guest
Matthew Tennenhouse

Thanks Jesse, I appreciate it. Actually, I’m doing an investigation into this. If you take the runs created and compare it to wins over the baseline of 48, the MLB average for 2010 would be 7.24 runs per win over replacement.

Therefore, I would say that the ten runs per win method is at fault in this case. However, I would like to compare this with other years to test this.

And Andrew, I did take into account pitcher’s WAR.

Lily
Guest
Lily

Dear Fangraphs,

Please join the 21st century and use SIERA for WAR calculations.

Thank you.

Brewing In Brooklyn
Guest
Brewing In Brooklyn

Can anyone tell me why WAR for pitchers and position players aren’t two separate stats? I’m always running into people using WAR to compare pitchers to position players and to me it doesn’t make much sense. Pitching WAR is derived using a different methodology than that employed for Offensive WAR. Just because you named them each the same thing doesn’t mean they equate…

victor caroli
Guest

Pitchers’ wins and losses shouldn’t even be a part statistical analysis. Consider this: One pitcher “scatters” seven hits but gives up no runs. The opposing pitcher throws a no-hitter and loses (yes, he can – a walk, a sac bunt, a stolen base, a sac fly); who pitched the better game ? What did the “winning” pitcher do to get the win? With the exception of strikeouts and walks; everything a pitcher accomplishes is solely the result of his defense. In nearly every no-hitter I’ve ever seen, there has been at least one incredible defensive play keeping the no-no intact.… Read more »

d.t.
Guest
d.t.

What you just described is basically the FIP and xFIP stats.

Born in DC
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Born in DC

2011 Tyler Clippard 88.1 IP 18 Runs 1.2 WAR
2011 Jonathan Papelbon 67.0 IP 29 Runs 1.2 WAR

ChiliPalmer14
Guest
ChiliPalmer14

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t there a glitch here? The question asked is: “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a minor leaguer or someone from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” But why ask “if” (or at least ONLY “if”) in regard to events that have already transpired? Where does it ask “Did”? i.e. “DID the player often make a replacement player relevant?” If player A is considerably better than a replacement player, but only plays about 125 games in the average season, how is that NOT… Read more »

Andrew
Guest
Andrew

This is probably a really dumb question, but is there a reason that only FA dollars being spent are used to determine how much each win above replacement is worth in dollars? Why do we not use total MLB salary or 25 Man roster salary? Wouldn’t this give us a better understanding of the total value of the Win and not the value of this player simply in relation to the other FA’s available?

ernie lamonica
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ernie lamonica

To: John Ogrin. I know exactly what you mean that every geek thinks their Bill James. To be honest I have never heard any human being, even at Yankee Stadium, (in all three of them) where I have been watching BB games since the 1950s say Mariano Rivers is the best pitcher ever. As a matter I have never any say he was the best Yankee pitcher ever. Just to nit pick. Have to nit pick to get ready for pitchers and catchers. Even after the Giants huge win yesterday when the Giants got revenge for 1962. In 2008 we… Read more »

Martin Renzhofer
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Martin Renzhofer

I’m still unconvinced about WAR. I may be off slightly on this number, but, for example, I read that Justin Verlander had a WAR of 8, impressive I guess. So that means he is eight wins better than a minor league or waiver wire player. Really? So your top minor league pitcher is going to win 16 games? (Verlander won 24). Hardly. Maybe I’m confused about what WAR really means, but I can’t believe that someone who won the pitching triple crown with that record is only eight games better than a replacement. Set me straight. By the way, I… Read more »

Connor
Guest
Connor

If he received the same amount of defense and run support that Verlander did, he’d do quite well.

Remember than pitcher Win/Loss records are not entirely up to the pitcher but have a lot to do with the team behind them. Would he have won 16 games? Probably not, but that’s not a testament to his ability, but rather the team’s ability to help him out on defense and score runs.

Kyle K
Guest
Kyle K

The MLB “wins” statistic is not equivalent to the “wins” in WAR. I’m mangling the stats a bit, but, as an example: Verlander’s W-L stat for 2011 is 24-5, but behind him, the team went 25-9 in 2011. So using Verlander’s WAR, a replacement’s team would have won ~ 8 fewer games, or would have gone 17-17. That sounds about right to me. You can’t factor in the no decisions, blown saves, and come-from-behind wins that are part of the traditional MLB statistic, which is why the thought of an average SP getting 16 traditional “wins” is tough to think… Read more »

Mike Brystle
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Mike Brystle

Exactly. No other pitcher on the team made it to 16 wins. And before acquiring Doug Fister; Phil Coke, Jacob Turner, Charlie Furbush, Duane Below, and Andy Oliver all saw time as the 5th starter. In 23 starts they combined for 4 wins. Turner is the teams top prospect and Coke, Furbush, and Below are all still on major league rosters, so it’s not like these aren’t legitimate replacements. I understand that wins/losses is dependent on a lot more than a pitcher’s individual performance, but it’s not entirely irrelevant. Verlander also had 4 “tough losses” and no “cheap wins”, the… Read more »

Mike Big Island
Guest

Still new to the advanced statistics so this was very interesting. However, I am a little confused by the constant use of WAR in the player projections for 2012. While they give a good idea of the player’s value and production, the WAR figure does not tell me what “kind” of player he is. I think I need to see the counting stats in addition to just WAR.

Adolf
Guest
Adolf

I want to kill so many Jews

Rick
Guest
Rick

WAR is a joke for one major reason. The 10 runs equals 1 win stat. Too arbitrary as if a win has to be a blow out to count. Also, SABR has no stats for clutch play which decides winning and losing in that not all runs or wins are equal.

mikesavino85
Member

I know that you won’t read this but here’s your explanation on those two things: Using the “pythagorean” equation, we find that runs scored and runs allowed correlate very strongly to a team’s winning percentage and we find that about a 10 run swing in either direction equates to about 1 win. So, that’s why if a players is worth 10 runs above a fictional replacement level player, the player is worth 1 WAR. SABR does indeed have stats for clutch play. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/get-to-know-wpa/ There’s also this: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/get-to-know-clutch/ WPA correlates with a player’s WAR as a we should expect good players… Read more »

Cheeses?
Guest
Cheeses?

What is it good for?

Ron
Guest
Ron

What I don’t like about WAR is that it’s still a ‘counting stat’ in that if you play more games in a season, your WAR is likely to be higher than someone who played fewer games unless that player was much better. For example… if a player plays first base for 160 games and averages .05 WAR/game (season WAR of 8), he’ll appear to have the same value as a player who played 107 games and averages .075 WAR/game. Particularly for teams that have a lot of depth and cash flow, even a backup level player is usually capable of… Read more »

Chris
Guest
Chris

This is why I can not believe in WAR…as of June 20th, 2012

Gregor Blanco .748 OPS 15 RBI 2.1 WAR
Miguel Cabrera .912 OPS 55 RBI 2.1 WAR

Tell me how any stat can be taken seriously when we are saying those two guys have had an equal season up to this point. I understand Miggy is slow and a below average fielder,but, I have the MLB package and watch Miggy on a daily basis. This team is terrible w/out him in the lineup.

Don B
Guest
Don B

If it makes any difference, Blanco is at 1.9 fWAR and Melky is at 3.1 fWAR as of right now.

Tim
Guest
Tim

This may be a stupid question, but is there any league adjustment for WAR? I just noticed that the top 4 hitters in the NL at this point have a higher WAR than the top batter by WAR in the AL.

Moer Ohn
Guest
Moer Ohn

This WAR thing is just one more reason to put all the saberchucklheadds in a room and nuke them. A real talent evaluator can tell how good a player is by watching him play. We don’t need no stinkin sabermetrics.

Lanny Lower
Guest
Lanny Lower

Let’s face it, unfortunately baseball isn’t a “for love of the game” game anymore. Baseball is a business and you have to manufacture a product that fans want to pay money to come see play. The reason fans come out to support there team is simple, because they win. Owners pay statisticians to analyze players contributions in an attempt to create a more accurate formula with an outcome that translates into victories. Ideally the end result of these stats and formulas at the end of the day lead to victories and victories lead to attendance, attendance leads to money. In… Read more »

Bill G
Guest

Professional baseball has always been a money making enterprise. The owners banked on the players primarily playing for the love of the game from the beginning until the reserve clause was found to be hollow. Statistics are just another means that people use to understand a complex world through simplification. In baseball, they will never be able to completely gauge a players worth. WAR is therefore useful but flawed. Reading the previous posts, I was disappointed that some folks still think a pitcher’s win-loss record is important, even in the DH era. Pitching is defense. It is impossible for a… Read more »

Chiefchowan
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Chiefchowan

Did you know that the NY Yankees are undefeated on every 3rd Tuesday, of odd months, during the fall, on even years divisible by 4, on games that start between the hours of 4 and 7, when there are no clouds in the sky, with a left hander starting, pitching to no more then 5 right handed batters.
That is crazy, stats dont lie!

Joe h
Guest
Joe h

Sorry just read WAR stat. I have to say I don’t like WAR. Stats don’t lie but can be manipulated, but that’s not why I don’t like war. I even look at WAR when recruting players. I have 3 sons who all played baseball. 2 were wanted by everyone every year, even going into college. My other son nobody wanted. He just ran to right field every game did what he had to do and ran back. One of his fallball coaches said one time come on get aggressive swing the bat. He didnt swing he walked. Only player to… Read more »

kinsers
Guest
kinsers

Evan Longoria is the king of WAR in 2012 isnt he? As in actual WIns Above Replacement player. ACTUAL WINS. The Rays were 42-26 with Longoria and 43-45 without as of yesterday. How about we just use that as WAR? but then again, there should be some credit given to someone who doesn’t miss 88 games a year due to injury so nevermind. Wait, now I’m confused. Oh well. Miguel Cabrera for MVP! (even though there’s probably stats that say it would be better to have a healthy Brandon Inge back on the team and playing 3rd and Cabrera not… Read more »

chas
Guest
chas

” … as far as the propositions of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.”
Albert Einstein, 1921

So, lighten-up, leave the math at home, and just enjoy a very simple game on a warm summer day…..the sounds, smells, and serendipity of the stadium, sun on your brow, and crack of the bat…shared simultaneously with family, friends, fellow fans, smiling children, and the players on the field….all in pursuit of….FUN….

Steve
Guest
Steve

The premise on the ‘war’ model seems flawed at best. This model does not measure a players ability, but the subjective unmeasurable outcomes of ‘what if’ scenarios. The premise of using replacement costs to measure a players impact on the team requires answers to the questions, ” who are my teammates?” and ” who are the competitors? “. If my teammates are more unskilled, my war goes up. If my competition has injuries or are unskilled then my replacement value goes up, my war goes up. How absurd! If my teammates are my equals, highly skilled talent, my replacement costs… Read more »

Eno Sarris
Member
Member

I’d replace all mentions of ‘teammates’ with ‘leaguemates’ to be more correct. And then yes, I’d say that my value is dependent on my leaguemates’ abilities. Because if I were on the open market, I’d be an asset for sale on that open market, and my leaguemates would provide the alternatives, and therefore would help determine my cost. WAR actually tries to remove teammates from the equation in particular, because once I am on a team, I can do nothing about my teammates. That’s part of the beauty of WAR. Use RBI and you’re a slave to the teammates, because… Read more »

MikeK
Guest

(W)ild A($$) (R)esults

lock12j
Member
lock12j

If WAR is calculated using rate statistics, how can it be an absolute (not a per PA, or per AB) measurement? It has to express the number of wins per something, does it not?

I’m just look at Giancarlo Stanton’s 5.8 WAR calculation and don’t understand how it reflects that he missed a good portion of the season.

What am I misunderestimating here?

lock12j
Member
lock12j

it is the number of wins above a replacement projected over a regular 162 game season?

i don’t understand how you can calculate team WAR without a method for weighing the individual players contributions.

my brain hurts.

Freakshow
Guest
Freakshow

No, its the number of wins provided above replacement in only the games the player played in. Since its only for the games the player played in his contribution is already weighted for team WAR.

Tony
Guest
Tony

I think WAR is a great stat, but its not perfect. i am a huge Giants fan, so forgive any bias. Based on what site you look at, Posey finished w/ a 7.2 WAR, Y. Molina finished w/ 6.8, Ruiz w/ a 4.4. Mostly in the case of Posey/Yadier being so closely, Posey batted 4th and the lineup would fall apart without him, while if Molina batting 5/6th went down,he would be much more replaceable, because the Cardianls would still score well and win games. It doesn’t reflect a lineups depth, or what the value of the true replacement behind… Read more »

dave
Guest
dave

War is not at all necessary in evaluating players. We knew who was the best before war. And who had the highest war in 2011? Ben Zobrist

canuck50
Member
canuck50

Wow! I’m so impressed. Who would have thought you needed to be a rocket scientist to be a baseball fan? Football fans wouldn’t stand a chance in this company LOL

Lawrence Grasso
Member
Lawrence Grasso

Does the WAR value posted on the pitcher leader boards include the effects of the pitcher’s batting and fielding? From the description of the calculation above, the answer appears to be no, and to get the entire WAR for a pitcher one would need to add the total from the batting records. However, I don’t want to add the WAR from the batting records for pitchers if it has already been added to the number reported on the pitcher file. Does the WAR value posted on the batting leader boards include the effects any pitching done by a non-pitcher? I’m… Read more »

Travis Johnson
Guest
Travis Johnson

Just a little observation: Denard Span had a 4.8 WAR this year. Josh Hamilton had a 3.4. Sooo I guess Span at the very least just as good as Hamilton, if not better right? Yeah, that stat totally works.

eb
Guest
eb

war is a joke. dwar is an even bigger joke. i can see with my eyes which players have the best defense and cover the most ground, and any stat that gives denard better value than hamilton is simply idiotic.

Boston Bob
Guest
Boston Bob

Remember….”90% of the game is half mental”.

whormongr
Member
whormongr

something that has been nagging me about WAR – has there ever been discussions about WAR and divisional strength? mostly because when a team plays in division and that is a weak division (calculating playing against a strong division is another barrel of fish ) it seems like all your WAR numbers can get thrown off. I was thinking about it this offseason especially when it comes to free agent cleveland players that would be difficult to lean on WAR since there were so many horribly weak teams within the division.