​
​
Sign In
  • Support FanGraphs
    FanGraphs Membership
    FanGraphs Shirts
    FanGraphs Mugs
    Gift a Membership
    Donate to FanGraphs
  • Fantasy
    Fantasy Tools
    Fantasy Player Rater
    Auction Calculator
    Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball
    Signup, FAQ, Blog Posts
  • Blogs
    Blog Roll

    FanGraphs
      Podcasts: Effectively Wild

      FanGraphs Prospects

      RotoGraphs
        Podcasts: The Sleeper and The Bust | Field of Streams | Beat the Shift

        Community Research

          Archived Blogs: The Hardball Times | NotGraphs | TechGraphs | FanGraphs+
          Archived THT: THT Live | Dispatch | Fantasy | ShysterBall
          Archived Podcasts: FanGraphs Audio | Chin Music | UMP: The Untitled McDongenhagen Project | Stealing Home | Doing It For Bartolo | OttoGraphs |
        • Projections
          2025 Pre-Season Projections
          ZiPS, ZiPS DC
          Steamer
          Depth Charts
          ATC
          THE BAT, THE BAT X
          OOPSY
          2025 600 PA / 200 IP Projections
          Steamer600, Steamer600 (Update)
          2025 Updated In-Season Projections
          ZiPS (RoS), ZiPS (Update), ZiPS DC (RoS)
          Steamer (RoS), Steamer (Update)
          Depth Charts (RoS)
          ATC DC (RoS)
          THE BAT (RoS), THE BAT X (RoS)
          OOPSY DC (RoS)
          3-Year Projections
          ZiPS 2026, ZiPS 2027
          On-Pace Leaders
          Every Game Played, Games Played %
          Cy Young Award Projections

          Auction Calculator
        • Scores
          Today
          Live Scoreboard, Probable Pitchers
          Live Daily Leaderboards
          Win Probability & Box Scores
          2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019
          AL Games
          NL Games
        • Standings
          2025 Projected Standings
          2025 Playoff Odds, Playoff Odds Graphs
          2024 ZiPS Postseason Game-By-Game Odds
          AL East
          AL Central
          AL West
          NL East
          NL Central
          NL West
        • Leaders
          Major League Leaders
          Batting: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, Career
          Pitching: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, Career
          Fielding: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, Career
          Major League Leaders - Rank
          Batting: Ranking Grid, Compare Players, Compare Stats
          Pitching: Ranking Grid, Compare Players, Compare Stats
          Splits Leaderboards
          Season Stat Grid

          Postseason Leaders
          Batting: 2024, (WS), (LCS), (LDS), (WCS), Career
          Pitching: 2024, (WS), (LCS), (LDS), (WCS), Career

          Spring Training Leaders
          Batting: 2025, 2024, 2023
          Pitching: 2025, 2024, 2023

          KBO Leaders
          Batting, Pitching
          NPB Leaders
          Batting, Pitching

          Minor League Leaders
          AAA: International League, Pacific Coast League
          AA: Eastern League, Southern League, Texas League
          A+: Midwest League, South Atlantic League, Northwest League
          A: California League, Carolina League, Florida State League
          CPX: Arizona, Florida
          R: Dominican Summer League
          College Leaders
          Batting, Pitching

          WAR Tools
          Combined WAR Leaderboards
          WAR Graphs
          WPA Tools
          WPA Inquirer
          Rookie Leaders
          Batters 2025, Pitchers 2025
          Splits Leaders
          Batters: vs L, vs R, Home, Away
          Pitchers: vs L, vs R, Home, Away
        • Teams
          Team Batting Stats
          2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020
          Team Pitching Stats
          2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020
          Team WAR Totals (RoS)
          AL East
          Blue Jays  |  DC
          Orioles  |  DC
          Rays  |  DC
          Red Sox  |  DC
          Yankees  |  DC
          AL Central
          Guardians  |  DC
          Royals  |  DC
          Tigers  |  DC
          Twins  |  DC
          White Sox  |  DC
          AL West
          Angels  |  DC
          Astros  |  DC
          Athletics  |  DC
          Mariners  |  DC
          Rangers  |  DC
          NL East
          Braves  |  DC
          Marlins  |  DC
          Mets  |  DC
          Nationals  |  DC
          Phillies  |  DC
          NL Central
          Brewers  |  DC
          Cardinals  |  DC
          Cubs  |  DC
          Pirates  |  DC
          Reds  |  DC
          NL West
          D-backs  |  DC
          Dodgers  |  DC
          Giants  |  DC
          Padres  |  DC
          Rockies  |  DC
          Positional Depth Charts
          Batters: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF, DH
          Pitchers: SP, RP
        • RosterResource
          Current Depth Charts
          AL East
          Blue Jays
          Orioles
          Rays
          Red Sox
          Yankees
          AL Central
          Guardians
          Royals
          Tigers
          Twins
          White Sox
          AL West
          Angels
          Astros
          Athletics
          Mariners
          Rangers
          NL East
          Braves
          Marlins
          Mets
          Nationals
          Phillies
          NL Central
          Brewers
          Cardinals
          Cubs
          Pirates
          Reds
          NL West
          D-backs
          Dodgers
          Giants
          Padres
          Rockies
          In-Season Tools
          2025 Closer Depth Chart
          2025 Injury Report
          2025 Payroll Pages
          2025 Transaction Tracker
          2025 Schedule Grid
          2025 Probables Grid
          2025 Lineup Tracker
          2025 Minor League Power Rankings
          Offseason Tools
          2025 Free Agent Tracker
          2025 Offseason Tracker
          2025 Opening Day Tracker
        • Prospects
          Prospects Home
          The Board
          The Board: Scouting + Stats!
          How To Use The Board: A Tutorial
          Farm System Rankings

          Top Prospects List
          20252024
          AL
          BALCHWATH
          BOSCLEHOU
          NYYDETLAA
          TBRKCRSEA
          TORMINTEX
          NL
          ATLCHCARI
          MIACINCOL
          NYMMILLAD
          PHIPITSDP
          WSNSTLSFG
          2025 Preseason Top 100
        • Glossary
          Library
          Batting Stats
          wOBA, wRC+, ISO, K% & BB%, more...
          Pitching Stats
          FIP, xFIP, BABIP, K/9 & BB/9, more...
          Defensive Stats
          UZR Primer, DRS, FSR, TZ & TZL, more...
          More
          WAR, UBR Primer, WPA, LI, Clutch
          Guts!
          Seasonal Constants
          Park Factors
          Park Factors by Handedness
        • Sign In
        • Intro
        • Features
        • Offense
          • Complete List (Offense)
          • OBP
          • OPS and OPS+
          • wOBA
          • wRC and wRC+
          • wRAA
          • Off
          • BsR
          • UBR
          • wSB
          • wGDP
          • BABIP
          • ISO
          • HR/FB
          • Spd
          • Pull%/Cent%/Oppo%
          • Soft%/Med%/Hard%
          • GB%, LD%, FB%
          • K% and BB%
          • Plate Discipline (O-Swing%, Z-Swing%, etc.)
          • Pitch Type Linear Weights
          • Pace
        • Defense
          • Overview
          • Def
          • UZR
          • DRS
          • Defensive Runs Saved – 2020 Update
          • Inside Edge Fielding
          • Catcher Defense
          • FSR
          • RZR
          • TZ / TZL
        • Pitching
          • Complete List (Pitching)
          • PitchingBot Pitch Modeling Primer
          • Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+ Primer
          • ERA
          • WHIP
          • FIP
          • xFIP
          • SIERA
          • Strikeout and Walk Rates
          • Pull%/Cent%/Oppo%
          • Soft%/Med%/Hard%
          • GB%, LD%, FB%
          • BABIP
          • HR/FB
          • LOB%
          • Pitch Type Linear Weights
          • SD / MD
          • ERA- / FIP- / xFIP-
          • Plate Discipline (O-Swing%, Z-Swing%, etc.)
          • Pace
          • PITCHF/x
            • What is PITCHF/x?
            • Pitch Type Abbreviations & Classifications
            • Heat Maps
            • Common Mistakes
            • PITCHf/x Resources
        • WE/RE/LI
          • RE24
          • Win Expectancy
          • WPA
          • LI
          • WPA/LI
          • Clutch
        • Principles
          • DIPS
          • Regression toward the Mean
          • Replacement Level
          • Sample Size
          • Splits
          • Projection Systems
          • Linear Weights
          • Counting vs. Rate Statistics
          • Park Factors
          • Park Factors – 5 Year Regressed
          • Positional Adjustment
          • Aging Curve
          • League Equivalencies
          • Pythagorean Win-Loss
          • Luck
        • WAR
          • What is WAR?
          • WAR for Position Players
          • WAR for Pitchers
          • FDP
          • fWAR, rWAR, and WARP
          • WAR Misconceptions
        • Business

        Defensive Metrics, Their Flaws, and the Language of Writers

        by Neil Weinberg
        August 22, 2014

        If you spent time hanging around the comments section of Dave’s Alex Gordon piece, you lurked in the shadow’s of his conversation with Jeff Passan on Twitter, or you’re one of those people who Twitter searches the word “FanGraphs,” you probably saw a decent amount of skepticism about single-season defensive metrics this week. People tossed around words like “flawed” and “absurd.”

        The interesting part of the debate, for me at least, was that there was skepticism from both sides. The sabermetric elite dove into an esoteric debate about how to best incorporate defense into WAR and less analytically minded fans used Gordon passing Mike Trout in WAR as kindling for their “WAR is silly” crusade.

        Dave’s piece does a nice job covering exactly what it means to say Alex Gordon leads position players in WAR, but the fact that Dave had to write that piece in the first place speaks to a problem we often run into when using advanced metrics. It’s a communication problem. Dave addresses it, but I’d like to expand on it here because it’s vitally important.

        Let’s divide the population into two groups, Saber and Non-Saber. Of course it’s more nuanced than that, but what we’re really talking about is people with an knowledge of advanced statistics and people who don’t have that expertise. The thing about writers is that they develop their own language, a short-hand, that they use when communicating with other writers. Think about your own areas of expertise and you’ll certainly relate.

        For example, when social scientists talk with each other, they often speak in a complicated series of citations in which they just rattle off a bunch of last names. Since they’ve all read the same series of books and articles, they don’t need to expand on anything. Saying, “but Author X argues this” is sufficient to move a conversation forward.

        We get caught doing this too when using advanced metrics. When a FanGraphs author writes an article, any article, and shows that Played A has a WAR of 4.5 and Player B has a WAR of 3.9, the Saber population knows many things without reading another word. First, they know the author is using FanGraphs WAR. Second, they know that there are other versions of WAR and that those WARs are different. Third, they know that a 4.5 WAR and 3.9 WAR aren’t different enough to be 100% sure that Player A has been more valuable. The Saber reader knows all of these things without the author doing anything beyond mention two WAR values.

        The Non-Saber reader understands this quite differently. They see the author making an assertion that Player A is 0.6 WAR better than Player B. And that’s where it ends.

        This is by no means an argument that Non-Saber fans are stupid, it’s just that they aren’t familiar with the shortcuts. When a writer on FanGraphs mentions a player’s single-season defensive performance, they’re building all of our assumptions into the presentation of a basic fact.

        Saying Alex Gordon has a 22.4 UZR this year does not mean Alex Gordon is definitely 22 runs better than the average left fielder this year. Saber fans know this. It’s built into the phrase “UZR.” And because it’s built into the phrase, the average FanGraphs writer doesn’t take two lines to explain the limitations of UZR. When someone includes a list of the players with the highest WAR, they don’t take a paragraph to explain how the top six or seven players are all pretty much the same.

        This leads to communication problems. You’ve probably heard saber-critics complain that Saber writers use WAR as the be all and end all statistic. It’s a common complaint. What’s funny about that is that I’ve never heard a Saber-minded ever make that case. Not once. Saber writers use WAR as a tool and the audience they write for regularly knows exactly what that tool does and doesn’t tell you. I didn’t see any Saber writers saying Mike Trout was the MVP last year because his WAR was much higher than anyone else. Mike Trout was the MVP because he played better than everyone else. WAR is just a tool that approximates how much better he was.

        But the thing is, we never say it like that because then everything would be horribly redundant. Could you imagine if every post on FanGraphs that used WAR had a paragraph explaining WAR? That would be madness because most regular readers of FanGraphs know all about WAR and what its uses are. It’s a fundamental challenge of writing for an informed audience while also trying to draw in fans who are coming into the conversation with a clean slate. How much should you explain each stat each time you use it?

        That’s why FanGraphs has the Library and this blog. If you see something you don’t understand, we have tools to help you put the pieces together. The problem is getting from Point A to Point B. When someone comes to FanGraphs, looks at our WAR leaderboard, and finds Alex Gordon ahead of Mike Trout, they immediately become skeptical. But they’re in the middle of an unknown unknown. They don’t realize that they are lacking critical information, like which statistics might be subject to larger variation and how precise WAR is trying to be.

        Alex Gordon has been one of the most valuable players in baseball so far this year. You can’t construct a valid argument where he ranks much lower than 15 or so among position players. If you’re using WAR as a guide, it works perfectly. If you use WAR as a precise indicator of what FanGraphs considers truth, it doesn’t.

        It’s really all about the dialect. If I’m debating a player with another writer here and cite the player’s UZR, we both know exactly how much to trust that value and neither one of us has to say anything about how accurate or precise it truly is. When a newish reader hears this conversation or reads an article, it isn’t always clear.

        I’m not sure I have a solution to the problem. I’m actually not certain it’s a problem per se. It’s a fact of life of which we should all be aware. This isn’t about defensive metrics or WAR. It’s about understanding patterns of communication and that’s super important when dealing with baseball statistics that are reasonably new. FanGraphs doesn’t trust WAR or UZR more than we should, we just don’t constantly bring up the concerns because most of the people we talk to on a day to day basis are up to speed. This can lead to problems, but that’s why the Library is here. There’s a gap between the language of writers and fans and this is hopefully where that gap is bridged.





        ERA, FIP, and Answering the Right Question
         
        Learning to Speak Saber: Runs and Wins

        Neil Weinberg is the Site Educator at FanGraphs and can be found writing enthusiastically about the Detroit Tigers at New English D. Follow and interact with him on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44.

        Comments are closed.


        Updated: Friday, May 9, 2025 11:35 PM ETUpdated: 5/9/2025 11:35 PM ET
        @fangraphs - Contact Us - Advertise - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy
        sis_logo
        All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions.
        mlb logo
        Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball.
        Mitchel Lichtman
        All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman.
        TangoTiger.com
        All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com
        Retrosheet.org
        Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet.