Sign In
  • Support FanGraphs
    FanGraphs Membership
    Gift a Membership
    Donate to FanGraphs
    FanGraphs Store
  • Games
    Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball
    Signup, FAQ, Blog Posts
  • Blogs
    Blog Roll

    FanGraphs
    Podcasts: FanGraphs Audio | Effectively Wild

    FanGraphs Prospects
    Podcasts: UMP: The Untitled McDongenhagen Project

    RotoGraphs
    Podcasts: The Sleeper and The Bust | Field of Streams

    The Hardball Times
    Podcasts: THT Audio

    Community Research

    Archived Blogs: NotGraphs | TechGraphs | FanGraphs+
    Archived THT: THT Live | Dispatch | Fantasy | ShysterBall
    Archived Podcasts: Stealing Home | Doing It For Bartolo | OttoGraphs
  • Projections
    2021 Pre-Season Projections
    ZiPS, Steamer, Depth Charts
    ATC, THE BAT, THE BAT X
    2021 600 PA / 200 IP Projections
    Steamer600
    2021 Updated In-Season Projections
    ZiPS (RoS), ZiPS (Update)
    Steamer (RoS), Steamer (Update)
    Depth Charts (RoS)
    THE BAT (RoS), THE BAT X (RoS)
    3 Year Projections
    ZiPS 2021, ZiPS 2022
    DFS Projections
    SaberSim
    Auction Calculator
  • Scores
    Today
    Live Scoreboard, Probable Pitchers
    Live Daily Leaderboards
    Win Probability & Box Scores
    2020, 2019, 2018, 2017...
  • Standings
    2020 Projected Standings
    2020 Playoff Odds, Playoff Odds Graphs
    ZiPS Postseason Game-By-Game Odds
    AL East
    AL Central
    AL West
    NL East
    NL Central
    NL West
  • Leaders
    Major League Leaders
    Batting: 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, Career
    Pitching: 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, Career
    Splits Leaderboards
    Season Stat Grid
    60-Game Span Leaderboards (Special)

    KBO Leaders
    Batting, Pitching

    Minor League Leaders
    AAA: International, Pacific Coast, Mexican
    AA: Eastern, Southern, Texas
    A+: California, Carolina, Florida State
    A: Midwest, South Atlantic
    A-: New York-Penn, Northwest
    R: Appalachian, Gulf Coast, Pioneer, Arizona
    R: Dominican
    Legacy Minor League Leaderboards

    WAR Tools
    Combined WAR Leaderboards
    WAR Graphs
    WPA Tools
    WPA Inquirer
    Rookie Leaders
    Batters 2020, Pitchers 2020
    Splits Leaders
    Batters: vs L, vs R, Home, Away
    Pitchers: vs L , vs R, Home, Away
  • Teams
    Team Batting Stats
    2020, 2019, 2018, 2017...
    Team Pitching Stats
    2020, 2019, 2018, 2017...
    Team WAR Totals (RoS)
    AL East
    Blue Jays  |  DC
    Orioles  |  DC
    Rays  |  DC
    Red Sox  |  DC
    Yankees  |  DC
    AL Central
    Indians  |  DC
    Royals  |  DC
    Tigers  |  DC
    Twins  |  DC
    White Sox  |  DC
    AL West
    Angels  |  DC
    Astros  |  DC
    Athletics  |  DC
    Mariners  |  DC
    Rangers  |  DC
    NL East
    Braves  |  DC
    Marlins  |  DC
    Mets  |  DC
    Nationals  |  DC
    Phillies  |  DC
    NL Central
    Brewers  |  DC
    Cardinals  |  DC
    Cubs  |  DC
    Pirates  |  DC
    Reds  |  DC
    NL West
    D-backs  |  DC
    Dodgers  |  DC
    Giants  |  DC
    Padres  |  DC
    Rockies  |  DC
    Positional Depth Charts
    Batters: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF, DH
    Pitchers: SP, RP
  • RosterResource
    Offseason Tools
    2021 Opening Day Tracker
    2021 Offseason Tracker
    2021 Free Agent Tracker
    2021 Injury Report
    Current Depth Charts
    AL East
    Blue Jays
    Orioles
    Rays
    Red Sox
    Yankees
    AL Central
    Indians
    Royals
    Tigers
    Twins
    White Sox
    AL West
    Angels
    Astros
    Athletics
    Mariners
    Rangers
    NL East
    Braves
    Marlins
    Mets
    Nationals
    Phillies
    NL Central
    Brewers
    Cardinals
    Cubs
    Pirates
    Reds
    NL West
    D-backs
    Dodgers
    Giants
    Padres
    Rockies
  • Prospects
    Prospects Home
    THE BOARD!
    THE BOARD: Scouting + Stats!
    Top Prospects List
    Top Prospects
    20212020
    AL
    BALCHWHOU
    BOSCLELAA
    NYYDETOAK
    TBRKCRSEA
    TORMINTEX
    NL
    ATLCHCARI
    MIACINCOL
    NYMMILLAD
    PHIPITSDP
    WSNSTLSFG
    AL
    BALCHWHOU
    BOSCLELAA
    NYYDETOAK
    TBRKCRSEA
    TORMINTEX
    NL
    ATLCHCARI
    MIACINCOL
    NYMMILLAD
    PHIPITSDP
    WSNSTLSFG

    • 2020 Preseason Top 100

  • Glossary
    Library
    Batting Stats
    wOBA, wRC+, ISO, K% & BB%, more...
    Pitching Stats
    FIP, xFIP, BABIP, K/9 & BB/9, more...
    Defensive Stats
    UZR Primer, DRS, FSR, TZ & TZL, more...
    More
    WAR, UBR Primer, WPA, LI, Clutch
    Guts!
    Seasonal Constants
    Park Factors
    Park Factors by Handedness
  • Sign In
Help Support FanGraphs


Become a Member No Thanks
Already a member? Log In
  • Intro
  • Features
  • Offense
    • Complete List (Offense)
    • OBP
    • OPS and OPS+
    • wOBA
    • wRC and wRC+
    • wRAA
    • Off
    • BsR
    • UBR
    • wSB
    • wGDP
    • BABIP
    • ISO
    • HR/FB
    • Spd
    • Pull%/Cent%/Oppo%
    • Soft%/Med%/Hard%
    • GB%, LD%, FB%
    • K% and BB%
    • Plate Discipline (O-Swing%, Z-Swing%, etc.)
    • Pitch Type Linear Weights
    • Pace
  • Defense
    • Overview
    • Def
    • UZR
    • DRS
    • Defensive Runs Saved – 2020 Update
    • Inside Edge Fielding
    • Catcher Defense
    • FSR
    • RZR
    • TZ / TZL
  • Pitching
    • Complete List (Pitching)
    • ERA
    • WHIP
    • FIP
    • xFIP
    • SIERA
    • Strikeout and Walk Rates
    • Pull%/Cent%/Oppo%
    • Soft%/Med%/Hard%
    • GB%, LD%, FB%
    • BABIP
    • HR/FB
    • LOB%
    • Pitch Type Linear Weights
    • SD / MD
    • ERA- / FIP- / xFIP-
    • Plate Discipline (O-Swing%, Z-Swing%, etc.)
    • Pace
    • PITCHF/x
      • What is PITCHF/x?
      • Pitch Type Abbreviations & Classifications
      • Heat Maps
      • Common Mistakes
      • PITCHf/x Resources
  • WE/RE/LI
    • RE24
    • Win Expectancy
    • WPA
    • LI
    • WPA/LI
    • Clutch
  • Principles
    • DIPS
    • Regression toward the Mean
    • Replacement Level
    • Sample Size
    • Splits
    • Projection Systems
    • Linear Weights
    • Counting vs. Rate Statistics
    • Park Factors
    • Park Factors – 5 Year Regressed
    • Positional Adjustment
    • Aging Curve
    • League Equivalencies
    • Pythagorean Win-Loss
    • Luck
  • WAR
    • What is WAR?
    • WAR for Position Players
    • WAR for Pitchers
    • FDP
    • fWAR, rWAR, and WARP
    • WAR Misconceptions
  • Business

Which is Better? A Ground Ball Pitcher or a Fly Ball Pitcher

by Neil Weinberg
December 12, 2014

It’s very likely that if you’ve spent any time at all reading sabermetric analysis that you’ve heard some mention of a pitcher’s batted ball profile. You might have seen a reference to a guy being a “ground ball machine” or an “extreme fly ball pitcher” and perhaps you wondered to yourself, “which is better?” Would a pitcher be better off as one or the other?

In reality, there’s no ideal batted ball distribution for a pitcher, just like there’s no perfect distribution for a hitter. Pitchers would love to never allow line drives and get tons of infield fly balls, but within the realm of possible outcomes, you can be successful as a ground ball pitcher or as a fly ball pitcher. One isn’t better than other, they’re just different.

Let’s take a look at a little bit of data to get started. Here are the results on each type of ball in play from 2014:

Type AVG ISO wOBA
GB .239 .020 .220
LD .685 .190 .684
FB .207 .378 .335

You can see that line drives are bad news for pitchers any way you slice them. They lead to more hits and huge run values compared to the other types of balls in play. But there’s a trade off in the ground ball-fly ball department. Ground balls go for hits more often than fly balls but fly balls go for extra bases much more often when they do drop in for hits.

In other words, if you’re a fly ball pitcher, you can usually sustain a below average BABIP, but you might get tagged for a few extra doubles, triples, and homers as a result. Ground ball artists, on the other hand, don’t often allow homers and extra base hits, but they allow singles to squeak through more often.

If you’re perfectly average, you’d likely prefer to induce a ground ball to a fly ball, but it depends on the situation, your park, your defense, and your particular arsenal. It’s not a simple relationship, as the better you are at getting ground balls the less likely they are to hurt you and the more likely you are to get fly balls, the less likely they are to hurt you. Head over to our entry on batted ball stats and SIERA to learn more about that relationship.

Now let’s consider this from a different angle. Let’s divide pitchers up into four equal groups based on their ground ball rate and look at their ERA- and FIP-. Below is a table that does just that using pitcher seasons from 2014 of at least 100 innings (n = 149):

Split ERA- FIP-
All 98 99
Highest GB% 95 95
Above Average GB% 92 91
Below Average GB% 97 100
Lowest GB% 105 106

We know that ground balls generally have a lower run value than fly balls despite their higher BABIP, and in general, pitchers who throw more ground balls perform better overall. But it’s not simply a matter of more ground balls always helping. There’s a point at which more ground balls doesn’t really change things and it’s not like this is an extremely strong relationship.

There’s another interesting wrinkle to consider. Balls that are pulled, hit up the middle, or hit the other way are also different in terms of their potential damage. Max Weinstein found, for example, the ground balls the other way are worse for the pitcher than ground balls that are pulled, but line drives and fly balls are much more dangerous to the pull field.

Ideally, you want to get batters to pull the ball on the ground and hit it in the air the other way. Pitchers can only control the type of batted ball and spray to a degree, but pitchers who find themselves hitting these marks will allow fewer runs.

There’s also an issue of HR/FB%, which is measured exactly how it sounds, and indicates how often a pitcher allows a home run for every fly ball. This is important because this number takes a while to “stabilize.” If you get unlucky on a ground ball, you’re allowing a single and the occasional double. If you get unlucky on a fly ball, it might clear the fence. This is why we have statistics like xFIP, which try to approximate a player’s performance had they allowed a league average HR/FB%.

But that xFIP value is based on the pitcher’s fly ball rate, because we expect pitchers who allow more fly balls to allow more home runs. But again, if you’re an extreme fly ball pitcher, that effect can turn around.

Essentially, there’s no magic batted ball profile. Ground ball pitchers typically do a little better on average but there are plenty of terrific fly ball pitchers as well. You can make more mistakes on balls in play if you have a high strikeout rate or a low walk rate, too, but those are related to the quality of contact you allow. And quality of contact is really what it comes down to. A ground ball isn’t a uniform thing. There are all sorts of ground balls hit at different angles and velocities.

A 47% ground ball rate sounds perfectly fine, but it doesn’t tell you the whole story. You always need to include more data in your analysis, but batted ball numbers can tell you something about the potential strengths and weaknesses of a given pitcher. If you have a fly ball guy, you know it’s pretty likely he won’t allow that many singles (relatively speaking), but that he might get tagged for a few dingers every now and then. If you have a ground ball pitcher, you’re not going to see the extra base power but you might watch a few rallies get going on four straight singles.

We’re talking about a trade-off, not an ideal type. It’s about the way in which a pitcher gets their outs and what you really care about is that he’s getting outs, period. If you see a pitcher with a certain profile, however, and the outcomes aren’t lining up, that’s when you might get curious. If you run into a ground ball pitcher with a .250 BABIP, take caution and prepare for some regression in all likelihood.

One type isn’t better than the other, they’re just different. You can be good, bad, and in between no matter your rates.





Considering High Leverage Performance and Clutch Hitting
 
The Beginner’s Guide To Understanding Park Factors

Neil Weinberg is the Site Educator at FanGraphs and can be found writing enthusiastically about the Detroit Tigers at New English D. Follow and interact with him on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44.

newest oldest most voted
Carter
Guest
Carter
You can flag a comment by clicking its flag icon. Website admin will know that you reported it. Admins may or may not choose to remove the comment or block the author. And please don't worry, your report will be anonymous.

Bill James always wrote that he perfered fly ball pitchers over ground ball pitchers. I think his reasoning behind it is that he didn’t think ground ball pitchers got a lot of striekouts , and he thinks to be a great pitcher you need a a good to great strike out rate.

What are your thoughts on this?

Vote Up0Vote Down 
6 years ago
Neil Weinberg
Author
Member
Neil Weinberg
You can flag a comment by clicking its flag icon. Website admin will know that you reported it. Admins may or may not choose to remove the comment or block the author. And please don't worry, your report will be anonymous.

You can probably make this case in general as the kinds of pitchers that get strikeouts also generate fly balls, but there are also plenty of fly ball guys who don’t get a lot of strikeouts. Might be harder to be great as a ground ball guy, but I don’t think it’s harder to be good.

Vote Up0Vote Down 
6 years ago
Tom R
Guest
Tom R
You can flag a comment by clicking its flag icon. Website admin will know that you reported it. Admins may or may not choose to remove the comment or block the author. And please don't worry, your report will be anonymous.

Great article! How were the splits (Lowest to Highest GB% rate) defined?

Vote Up0Vote Down 
5 years ago
You are going to send email to

Move Comment

Updated: Tuesday, January 19, 2021 3:18 AM ETUpdated: 1/19/2021 3:18 AM ET
Player Linker - Contact Us - Advertise - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy
bis logo
All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions.
mlb logo
Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball.
Mitchel Lichtman
All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman.
TangoTiger.com
All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com
Retrosheet.org
Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet.